Analisis Permintaan Beras di Provinsi Jawa Timur

Abstract

Rice is a strategic commodity that plays a crucial role in the national food security system, particularly in East Java Province, Indonesia's largest rice production center. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing rice demand in East Java during the 2007–2024 period using an econometric approach. The study utilized secondary time series data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, and various other official publications. The analysis was conducted using a double-log multiple linear regression model to directly obtain demand elasticity values. The independent variables used included the rice-to-corn price ratio, the vegetable price ratio, the animal protein price ratio, and per capita income. The results showed that the model had very high explanatory power with an R- Squared value of 96.7 percent. Per capita income had a negative and significant effect on rice demand, indicating a shift in consumer consumption patterns toward a more diverse diet. The rice-to-corn price ratio had a positive but relatively small effect, indicating that corn was not yet a perfect substitute for rice. The vegetable price ratio had a significant negative effect on rice demand, while the animal protein price ratio had no significant effect. These findings demonstrate that rice consumption in East Java is beginning to transform with increasing public prosperity and changes in urban lifestyles. This research has important implications for food security policies, consumption diversification, and food price stabilization in East Java.