ANALYSIS OF RICE PRODUCTION PROJECTION IN MALANG REGENCY

Hanna Innayah Rochmawati, Zainul Arifin, Titis Surya Maha Rianti

Abstract


Rice as the main crop in rice production makes it very important in meeting the rice needs of the population, sufficient rice production can also guarantee adequate rice availability for the community. The population in Malang Regency increases every year. The increasing population causes the community's need for food, especially rice, to also increase. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the projection of rice production in 2024-2045 in Malang Regency. With a quantitative approach, using secondary data, data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Malang Regency. The analysis method uses Box-Jenskins ARIMA analysis. The results of the analysis of the rice production projections shown by Malang Regency in 2024 - 2045 will experience an increase in rice production with an average percentage increase of 1.15% per year. The highest rice production is in 2045 at 629,707 Ton-GKG. This is because the projected harvest area will increase every year with an average growth of 4.45% and productivity will increase with an average growth of 0.01% each year.


Keywords


Projections, Rice Production, ARIMA

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References


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