Pengaruh Perubahan Inflasi dan Perubahan Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Asing Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Rakyat Indonesia di Timor – Leste (Study Kasus pada Bank Rakyat Indonesia di Timor - Leste)

Abstract

This study looks at how foreign exchange rates and inflation affect Bank Rakyat Indonesia's (BRI) profitability in Timor-Leste. The study uses multiple linear regression analysis and a quantitative approach, using time-series data from 2021–2023 (36 monthly samples). Profitability, as determined by Return on Assets (ROA), is the dependent variable, whilst inflation and the exchange rate (IDR/USD) are the independent factors. The Financial Services Authority (OJK), Bank Indonesia, and BRI's financial reports were the sources of the data. T-tests and F-tests were performed after the traditional assumption tests (normality, heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, and multicollinearity).The findings show that BRI's ROA is considerably impacted by inflation (p < 0.05), with a 1% increase in inflation lowering ROA by 0.271%. On the other hand, exchange rate changes had no discernible individual effects (p > 0.05), most likely as a result of BRI's small volume of foreign transactions in Timor-Leste. Nonetheless, the combined effect of both variables on ROA is substantial (F-test p < 0.05), accounting for 36.5% of the variation in profitability (R2 = 0.365), with the remaining 63.5% being ascribed to characteristics that have not been explored. According to the study's findings, controlling inflation is essential to preserving BRI's profitability in Timor-Leste, but if the bank grows its global operations, exchange rate issues might need more attention. These results provide BRI with information to improve risk management tactics, especially when it comes to reducing inflationary pressures. Limitations include sample limitations and data objectivity, which call for longer-term or other approaches in future research to improve validity.
Keywords: Bank Rakyat Indonesia, ROA, profitability, exchange rate, and inflation.