KETEPATAN PASAR MODAL DALAM MEMPREDIKSI KONDISI EKONOMI (Study Empiris di Bursa Efek Indonesia tahun 2013-2017)

Abstract

ABSTRACT
This study examines the accuracy of the Indonesian stock market in predicting
Indonesia's economic conditions in the future. Economic conditions are
represented by changes in the level of Gross Domestic Product and Inflation rates
for the monthly period. Changes in the world economy are represented by
changes in the United States S & P 500 stock index, and Japan Nikkei 225 stock
index. Research time covers 2013 to 2017. The results of the f test show that all
variables affect the returns IHSG, while the results of the t test shows that
Inflation and Gross Domestic Product have a negative effect and significant on
return IHSG stock returns and the S & P 500 Index Nikkei 225 Index has a
positive and significant effect on return IHSG . This shows that the Indonesian
stock market is unable to be used to predict Indonesia's future economic
conditions, but is more influenced by world economic conditions reflected in
changes in the US and Japanese stock markets.
Keywords : Return IHSG,Gross Domestic Product , S&P 500 stock index and
Nikkei 225 stock index