PENGARUH MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PT BISI INTERNATIONAL TBK. PERIODE 2020-2024
Abstract
Global macroeconomic volatility, encompassing interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and GDP growth potentially influences capital market stability, particularly in the agribusiness sector due to its sensitivity to exogenous shocks. This study empirically analyzes the impact of these four macroeconomic variables on the stock returns of PT BISI International Tbk. from 2020 to 2024. Employing a quantitative associative approach, multiple linear regression was applied to monthly secondary data (60 observations) covering the BI Rate, JISDOR exchange rates, inflation, GDP growth, and stock returns. Results demonstrate that interest rates (β = -3.647; p < 0.001) and GDP growth (β = -0.280; p = 0.034) exert significant negative effects, whereas exchange rates (β = 5.094; p < 0.001) and inflation (β = 1.630; p < 0.001) exhibit significant positive effects on stock returns. The model accounted for 55.2% of return variance (Adj. R² = 0.552), with all classical regression assumptions satisfied. We conclude that synchronous macroeconomic fluctuations significantly shape equity performance, necessitating strategic consideration by investors and corporate management in formulating investment decisions and mitigation measures.
Keyword: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inflation, GDP Growth, Stock Return.Full Text:
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